In a move still requiring UNSC approval, Iran has signed a nuclear exchange agreement with Turkey and Brazil. The agreement allows Iran to transfer only a fraction of the amount of nuclear material originally called for by the UNSC, in return for the exchange taking place on Turkish soil. The Washington Post reports:
Iran signed a surprise deal for a nuclear fuel swap with Western nations on Monday, brokered by Brazil and Turkey. It was the first such agreement by the Islamic Republic with foreign nations since 2004....The agreement announced in Tehran on Monday builds on a swap deal Iran struck in October with the "Vienna group" -- a negotiating bloc that consists of the United States, Russia and France and representatives of the International Atomic Energy Agency.That pact fell apart after Iran insisted that any swap must take place on Iranian soil and be carried out in batches or simultaneously. The failure prompted the Obama administration to back off its policy of engagement with the Islamic Republic.
The big difference now is that Iran -- facing tougher sanctions -- has severely compromised on its demand that the swap take place within its borders. It is now prepared to send 2,640 pounds of low-enriched uranium to neighboring Turkey and to wait up to a year for the delivery of higher-enriched fuel from Russia and France.
If, for any reason, the swap fails, Iran's stockpile would be returned by Turkey, Davutoglu said.
The amount of low-enriched uranium agreed upon in the new deal, however, is significantly lower than the 70 percent of Iran's stockpile that U.S. officials have said they expect to be sent abroad.
An unnamed State Department official told Reuters news agency on Monday that 70 percent of the stockpile would equal nearly 4,400 pounds. In February, 70 percent of the stockpile was estimated at between 3,179 and 3,828 pounds.
The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Akbar Salehi, in an interview said the increase was "insignificant." Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman also stated that Iran would not stop enriching its uranium up to 20 percent, a controversial move that Iran started after the first swap proposal failed....Brazilian and Turkish representatives said they hope the deal will lead to further talks focused on solving the international standoff over Iran's nuclear program. Iran is supposed to send the Vienna group a letter within one week, seeking its approval.
Update: The Economist elucidates:
...The thinking behind the failed October deal was to take most of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium out of play, in order to create time for negotiations. But because Iran has carried on enriching uranium since it turned down the October deal, it has quite a lot more of the low-enriched stuff sitting around than it would send to Turkey under the new deal (some 1,100 kg according to Jacqueline Shire of the Institute for Science and International Security). Getting uranium from 20% enriched to the 90% or so needed for a bomb takes a lot less effort than getting to the original 3.5% in the first place. So even if the new deal with Brazil and Turkey sticks it is unlikely to buy Iran much time to avoid a vote on sanctions.
Word at the UN had it that a sanctions deal (a full arms embargo, financial and shipping sanctions and restrictions on the Revolutionary Guard) was near. Russia has recently joined America in sending a stronger signal that Iran must stop enrichment, as the UN Security Council has demanded, and answer the IAEA's increasingly pointed questions about activities that appear to indicate an interest in weapons development. This would have left only China in a position to veto sanctions, and China has traditionally not liked to veto alone.
The case against sanctions, in other words, seemed to be crumbling. But Turkey and Brazil might just succeed in swinging other temporary members of the Security Council against sanctions. Lebanon is already publicly sceptical, and Gabon has called for a negotiated solution. Mexico may feel caught between its important American relationship and its regional partner and rival, Brazil. Even if none of the veto-wielders bolts, the Western coalition could have to scrape for the nine votes needed, sending a weak signal.
Unless details of the new deal (a letter is to be sent to the IAEA this week) contain pleasant surprises, it appears Iran may have successfully repeated its old trick of widening divisions between the countries preparing to tighten the sanctions net around it. ...
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